Predicting Revenues with the Multiplier Heuristic

Abstract

We investigate the effectiveness of simple heuristics for revenue prediction in business contexts. The multiplier heuristic, which uses a simple multiplication rule based on historical data, is compared against complex machine learning algorithms. Our findings suggest that in many business environments, simple heuristics can match or outperform sophisticated predictive models while being more interpretable and easier to implement.

Cite

@article{artinger2020predicting,
  title={Predicting Revenues with the Multiplier Heuristic},
  author={Artinger, F. M. and Kozodoi, N. and Runge, J.},
  journal={Available at SSRN},
  year={2020}
}