Recency: Prediction with a Single Data Point

Abstract

We investigate the predictive power of recency-based heuristics using a single data point. In many domains, simple heuristics that rely on the most recent observation can outperform complex machine learning algorithms. This study examines when and why recency-based predictions are effective, providing insights into the conditions under which less information can lead to better predictions.

Cite

@article{artinger2023recency,
  title={Recency: Prediction with a Single Data Point},
  author={Artinger, F. M. and Gigerenzer, G. and Kozodoi, N. and Wangenheim, F. V.},
  journal={Available at SSRN},
  year={2023}
}